COVID-19 Surveillance After Expiration of the Public Health Emergency Declaration - United States, May 11, 2023.

On January 31, 2020, the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) declared, under Section 319 of the Public Health Service Act, a U.S. public health emergency because of the emergence of a novel virus, SARS-CoV-2.* After 13 renewals, the public health emergency will expire on May 11, 2023. Authorizations to collect certain public health data will expire on that date as well. Monitoring the impact of COVID-19 and the effectiveness of prevention and control strategies remains a public health priority, and a number of surveillance indicators have been identified to facilitate ongoing monitoring. After expiration of the public health emergency, COVID-19-associated hospital admission levels will be the primary indicator of COVID-19 trends to help guide community and personal decisions related to risk and prevention behaviors; the percentage of COVID-19-associated deaths among all reported deaths, based on provisional death certificate data, will be the primary indicator used to monitor COVID-19 mortality. Emergency department (ED) visits with a COVID-19 diagnosis and the percentage of positive SARS-CoV-2 test results, derived from an established sentinel network, will help detect early changes in trends. National genomic surveillance will continue to be used to estimate SARS-CoV-2 variant proportions; wastewater surveillance and traveler-based genomic surveillance will also continue to be used to monitor SARS-CoV-2 variants. Disease severity and hospitalization-related outcomes are monitored via sentinel surveillance and large health care databases. Monitoring of COVID-19 vaccination coverage, vaccine effectiveness (VE), and vaccine safety will also continue. Integrated strategies for surveillance of COVID-19 and other respiratory viruses can further guide prevention efforts. COVID-19-associated hospitalizations and deaths are largely preventable through receipt of updated vaccines and timely administration of therapeutics (1-4).

Correlations and Timeliness of COVID-19 Surveillance Data Sources and Indicators - United States, October 1, 2020-March 22, 2023.

When the U.S. COVID-19 public health emergency declaration expires on May 11, 2023, national reporting of certain categories of COVID-19 public health surveillance data will be transitioned to other data sources or will be discontinued; COVID-19 hospitalization data will be the only data source available at the county level (1). In anticipation of the transition, national COVID-19 surveillance data sources and indicators were evaluated for purposes of ongoing monitoring. The timeliness and correlations among surveillance indicators were analyzed to assess the usefulness of COVID-19-associated hospital admission rates as a primary indicator for monitoring COVID-19 trends, as well as the suitability of other replacement data sources. During April 2022-March 2023, COVID-19 hospital admission rates from the National Healthcare Safety Network (NHSN)† lagged 1 day behind case rates and 4 days behind percentages of positive test results and COVID-19 emergency department (ED) visits from the National Syndromic Surveillance Program (NSSP). In the same analysis, National Vital Statistics System (NVSS) trends in the percentage of deaths that were COVID-19-associated, which is tracked by date of death rather than by report date, were observable 13 days earlier than those from aggregate death count data, which will be discontinued (1). During October 2020-March 2023, strong correlations were observed between NVSS and aggregate death data (0.78) and between the percentage of positive SARS-CoV-2 test results from the National Respiratory and Enteric Viruses Surveillance System (NREVSS) and COVID-19 electronic laboratory reporting (CELR) (0.79), which will also be discontinued (1). Weekly COVID-19 Community Levels (CCLs) will be replaced with levels of COVID-19 hospital admission rates (low, medium, or high) which demonstrated >99% concordance by county during February 2022-March 2023. COVID-19-associated hospital admission levels are a suitable primary metric for monitoring COVID-19 trends, the percentage of COVID-19 deaths is a timely disease severity indicator, and the percentages of positive SARS-CoV-2 test results from NREVSS and ED visits serve as early indicators for COVID-19 monitoring. Collectively, these surveillance data sources and indicators can support monitoring of the impact of COVID-19 and related prevention and control strategies as ongoing public health priorities.

Impact of the COVID-19 Vaccination Program on case incidence, emergency department visits, and hospital admissions among children aged 5-17 Years during the Delta and Omicron Periods-United States, December 2020 to April 2022.

BACKGROUND: In the United States, national ecological studies suggest a positive impact of COVID-19 vaccination coverage on outcomes in adults. However, the national impact of the vaccination program on COVID-19 in children remains unknown. To determine the association of COVID-19 vaccination with U.S. case incidence, emergency department visits, and hospital admissions for pediatric populations during the Delta and Omicron periods. METHODS: We conducted an ecological analysis among children aged 5-17 and compared incidence rate ratios (RRs) of COVID-19 cases, emergency department visits, and hospital admissions by pediatric vaccine coverage, with jurisdictions in the highest vaccine coverage quartile as the reference. RESULTS: RRs comparing states with lowest pediatric vaccination coverage to the highest pediatric vaccination coverage were 2.00 and 0.64 for cases, 2.96 and 1.11 for emergency department visits, and 2.76 and 1.01 for hospital admissions among all children during the Delta and Omicron periods, respectively. During the 3-week peak period of the Omicron wave, only children aged 12-15 and 16-17 years in the states with the lowest versus highest coverage, had a significantly higher rate of emergency department visits (RR = 1.39 and RR = 1.34, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: COVID-19 vaccines were associated with lower case incidence, emergency department visits and hospital admissions among children during the Delta period but the association was weaker during the Omicron period. Pediatric COVID-19 vaccination should be promoted as part of a program to decrease COVID-19 impact among children; however, vaccine effectiveness may be limited when available vaccines do not match circulating viral variants.

Estimating the early impact of the US COVID-19 vaccination programme on COVID-19 cases, emergency department visits, hospital admissions, and deaths among adults aged 65 years and older: an ecological analysis of national surveillance data.

BACKGROUND: In the USA, COVID-19 vaccines became available in mid-December, 2020, with adults aged 65 years and older among the first groups prioritised for vaccination. We estimated the national-level impact of the initial phases of the US COVID-19 vaccination programme on COVID-19 cases, emergency department visits, hospital admissions, and deaths among adults aged 65 years and older. METHODS: We analysed population-based data reported to US federal agencies on COVID-19 cases, emergency department visits, hospital admissions, and deaths among adults aged 50 years and older during the period Nov 1, 2020, to April 10, 2021. We calculated the relative change in incidence among older age groups compared with a younger reference group for pre-vaccination and post-vaccination periods, defined by the week when vaccination coverage in a given age group first exceeded coverage in the reference age group by at least 1%; time lags for immune response and time to outcome were incorporated. We assessed whether the ratio of these relative changes differed when comparing the pre-vaccination and post-vaccination periods. FINDINGS: The ratio of relative changes comparing the change in the COVID-19 case incidence ratio over the post-vaccine versus pre-vaccine periods showed relative decreases of 53% (95% CI 50 to 55) and 62% (59 to 64) among adults aged 65 to 74 years and 75 years and older, respectively, compared with those aged 50 to 64 years. We found similar results for emergency department visits with relative decreases of 61% (52 to 68) for adults aged 65 to 74 years and 77% (71 to 78) for those aged 75 years and older compared with adults aged 50 to 64 years. Hospital admissions declined by 39% (29 to 48) among those aged 60 to 69 years, 60% (54 to 66) among those aged 70 to 79 years, and 68% (62 to 73), among those aged 80 years and older, compared with adults aged 50 to 59 years. COVID-19 deaths also declined (by 41%, 95% CI -14 to 69 among adults aged 65-74 years and by 30%, -47 to 66 among those aged ≥75 years, compared with adults aged 50 to 64 years), but the magnitude of the impact of vaccination roll-out on deaths was unclear. INTERPRETATION: The initial roll-out of the US COVID-19 vaccination programme was associated with reductions in COVID-19 cases, emergency department visits, and hospital admissions among older adults. FUNDING: None.

A Prospective Cohort Study in Nonhospitalized Household Contacts With Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Infection: Symptom Profiles and Symptom Change Over Time.

BACKGROUND: Improved understanding of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) spectrum of disease is essential for clinical and public health interventions. There are limited data on mild or asymptomatic infections, but recognition of these individuals is key as they contribute to viral transmission. We describe the symptom profiles from individuals with mild or asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection. METHODS: From 22 March to 22 April 2020 in Wisconsin and Utah, we enrolled and prospectively observed 198 household contacts exposed to SARS-CoV-2. We collected and tested nasopharyngeal specimens by real-time reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction (rRT-PCR) 2 or more times during a 14-day period. Contacts completed daily symptom diaries. We characterized symptom profiles on the date of first positive rRT-PCR test and described progression of symptoms over time. RESULTS: We identified 47 contacts, median age 24 (3-75) years, with detectable SARS-CoV-2 by rRT-PCR. The most commonly reported symptoms on the day of first positive rRT-PCR test were upper respiratory (n = 32 [68%]) and neurologic (n = 30 [64%]); fever was not commonly reported (n = 9 [19%]). Eight (17%) individuals were asymptomatic at the date of first positive rRT-PCR collection; 2 (4%) had preceding symptoms that resolved and 6 (13%) subsequently developed symptoms. Children less frequently reported lower respiratory symptoms (21%, 60%, and 69% for <18, 18-49, and ≥50 years of age, respectively; P = .03). CONCLUSIONS: Household contacts with laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection reported mild symptoms. When assessed at a single timepoint, several contacts appeared to have asymptomatic infection; however, over time all developed symptoms. These findings are important to inform infection control, contact tracing, and community mitigation strategies.

Decreases in COVID-19 Cases, Emergency Department Visits, Hospital Admissions, and Deaths Among Older Adults Following the Introduction of COVID-19 Vaccine - United States, September 6, 2020-May 1, 2021.

Throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, older U.S. adults have been at increased risk for severe COVID-19-associated illness and death (1). On December 14, 2020, the United States began a nationwide vaccination campaign after the Food and Drug Administration's Emergency Use Authorization of Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine. The Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) recommended prioritizing health care personnel and residents of long-term care facilities, followed by essential workers and persons at risk for severe illness, including adults aged ≥65 years, in the early phases of the vaccination program (2). By May 1, 2021, 82%, 63%, and 42% of persons aged ≥65, 50-64, and 18-49 years, respectively, had received ≥1 COVID-19 vaccine dose. CDC calculated the rates of COVID-19 cases, emergency department (ED) visits, hospital admissions, and deaths by age group during November 29-December 12, 2020 (prevaccine) and April 18-May 1, 2021. The rate ratios comparing the oldest age groups (≥70 years for hospital admissions; ≥65 years for other measures) with adults aged 18-49 years were 40%, 59%, 65%, and 66% lower, respectively, in the latter period. These differential declines are likely due, in part, to higher COVID-19 vaccination coverage among older adults, highlighting the potential benefits of rapidly increasing vaccination coverage.

Outbreak of COVID-19 and interventions in a large jail - Cook County, IL, United States, 2020.

BACKGROUND: Correctional and detention facilities are disproportionately affected by COVID-19 due to shared space, contact between staff and detained persons, and movement within facilities. On March 18, 2020, Cook County Jail, one of the United States' largest, identified its first suspected case of COVID-19 in a detained person. METHODS: This analysis includes SARS-CoV-2 cases confirmed by molecular detection among detained persons and Cook County Sheriff's Office staff. We examined occurrence of symptomatic cases in each building and proportions of asymptomatic detained persons testing positive, and timing of interventions including social distancing, mask use, and expanded testing and show outbreak trajectory in the jail compared to case counts in Chicago. RESULTS: During March 1-April 30, 907 symptomatic and asymptomatic cases of SARS-CoV-2 infection were detected among detained persons (n = 628) and staff (n = 279). Among asymptomatic detained persons in quarantine, 23.6% tested positive. Programmatic activity and visitation stopped March 9, cells were converted into single occupancy beginning March 26, and universal masking was implemented for staff (April 2) and detained persons (April 13). Cases at the jail declined while cases in Chicago increased. DISCUSSION/CONCLUSIONS: Aggressive intervention strategies coupled with widespread diagnostic testing of detained and staff populations can limit introduction and mitigate transmission of SARS-CoV-2 infection in correctional and detention facilities.

Identification of Presymptomatic and Asymptomatic Cases Using Cohort-Based Testing Approaches at a Large Correctional Facility-Chicago, Illinois, USA, May 2020.

BACKGROUND: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) continues to cause significant morbidity and mortality worldwide. Correctional and detention facilities are at high risk of experiencing outbreaks. We aimed to evaluate cohort-based testing among detained persons exposed to laboratory-confirmed cases of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in order to identify presymptomatic and asymptomatic cases. METHODS: During 1-19 May 2020, 2 testing strategies were implemented in 12 tiers or housing units of the Cook County Jail, Chicago, Illinois. Detained persons were approached to participate in serial testing (n = 137) and offered tests at 3 time points over 14 days (day 1, days 3-5, and days 13-14). The second group was offered a single test and interview at the end of a 14-day quarantine period (day 14 group) (n = 87). RESULTS: 224 detained persons were approached for participation and, of these, 194 (87%) participated in ≥1 interview and 172 (77%) had ≥1 test. Of the 172 tested, 19 were positive for SARS-CoV-2. In the serial testing group, 17 (89%) new cases were detected, 16 (84%) on day 1, 1 (5%) on days 3-5, and none on days 13-14; in the day 14 group, 2 (11%) cases were identified. More than half (12/19; 63%) of the newly identified cases were presymptomatic or asymptomatic. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings highlight the utility of cohort-based testing promptly after initiating quarantine within a housing tier. Cohort-based testing efforts identified new SARS-CoV-2 asymptomatic and presymptomatic infections that may have been missed by symptom screening alone.

Network Characteristics and Visualization of COVID-19 Outbreak in a Large Detention Facility in the United States - Cook County, Illinois, 2020.

Correctional and detention facilities have been disproportionately affected by coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) because of shared space and movement of staff members and detained persons within facilities (1,2). During March 1-April 30, 2020, at Cook County Jail in Chicago, Illinois, >900 COVID-19 cases were diagnosed across all 10 housing divisions, representing 13 unique buildings.† Movement within the jail was examined through network analyses and visualization, a field that examines elements within a network and the connections between them. This methodology has been used to supplement contact tracing investigations for tuberculosis and to understand how social networks contribute to transmission of sexually transmitted infections (3-5). Movements and connections of 5,884 persons (3,843 [65%] detained persons and 2,041 [35%] staff members) at the jail during March 1-April 30 were analyzed. A total of 472 (12.3%) COVID-19 cases were identified among detained persons and 198 (9.7%) among staff members. Among 103,701 shared-shift connections among staff members, 1.4% occurred between persons with COVID-19, a percentage that is significantly higher than the expected 0.9% by random occurrence alone (p<0.001), suggesting that additional transmission occurred within this group. The observed connections among detained persons with COVID-19 were significantly lower than expected (1.0% versus 1.1%, p<0.001) when considering only the housing units in which initial transmission occurred, suggesting that the systematic isolation of persons with COVID-19 is effective at limiting transmission. A network-informed approach can identify likely points of high transmission, allowing for interventions to reduce transmission targeted at these groups or locations, such as by reducing convening of staff members, closing breakrooms, and cessation of contact sports.

Lack of Serologic Evidence of Infection Among Health Care Personnel and Other Contacts of First 2 Confirmed Patients With COVID-19 in Illinois, 2020.

OBJECTIVES: Widespread global transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the virus causing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), continues. Many questions remain about asymptomatic or atypical infections and transmission dynamics. We used comprehensive contact tracing of the first 2 confirmed patients in Illinois with COVID-19 and serologic SARS-CoV-2 antibody testing to determine whether contacts had evidence of undetected COVID-19. METHODS: Contacts were eligible for serologic follow-up if previously tested for COVID-19 during an initial investigation or had greater-risk exposures. Contacts completed a standardized questionnaire during the initial investigation. We classified exposure risk as high, medium, or low based on interactions with 2 index patients and use of personal protective equipment (PPE). Serologic testing used a SARS-CoV-2 spike enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay on serum specimens collected from participants approximately 6 weeks after initial exposure to either index patient. The 2 index patients provided serum specimens throughout their illness. We collected data on demographic, exposure, and epidemiologic characteristics. RESULTS: Of 347 contacts, 110 were eligible for serologic follow-up; 59 (17% of all contacts) enrolled. Of these, 53 (90%) were health care personnel and 6 (10%) were community contacts. Seventeen (29%) reported high-risk exposures, 15 (25%) medium-risk, and 27 (46%) low-risk. No participant had evidence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies. The 2 index patients had antibodies detected at dilutions >1:6400 within 4 weeks after symptom onset. CONCLUSIONS: In serologic follow-up of the first 2 known patients in Illinois with COVID-19, we found no secondary transmission among tested contacts. Lack of seroconversion among these contacts adds to our understanding of conditions (ie, use of PPE) under which SARS-CoV-2 infections might not result in transmission and demonstrates that SARS-CoV-2 antibody testing is a useful tool to verify epidemiologic findings.

Symptoms and Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 Among Children - Utah and Wisconsin, March-May 2020.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Limited data exist on severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 in children. We described infection rates and symptom profiles among pediatric household contacts of individuals with coronavirus disease 2019. METHODS: We enrolled individuals with coronavirus disease 2019 and their household contacts, assessed daily symptoms prospectively for 14 days, and obtained specimens for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction and serology testing. Among pediatric contacts (<18 years), we described transmission, assessed the risk factors for infection, and calculated symptom positive and negative predictive values. We compared secondary infection rates and symptoms between pediatric and adult contacts using generalized estimating equations. RESULTS: Among 58 households, 188 contacts were enrolled (120 adults; 68 children). Secondary infection rates for adults (30%) and children (28%) were similar. Among households with potential for transmission from children, child-to-adult transmission may have occurred in 2 of 10 (20%), and child-to-child transmission may have occurred in 1 of 6 (17%). Pediatric case patients most commonly reported headache (79%), sore throat (68%), and rhinorrhea (68%); symptoms had low positive predictive values, except measured fever (100%; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 44% to 100%). Compared with symptomatic adults, children were less likely to report cough (odds ratio [OR]: 0.15; 95% CI: 0.04 to 0.57), loss of taste (OR: 0.21; 95% CI: 0.06 to 0.74), and loss of smell (OR: 0.29; 95% CI: 0.09 to 0.96) and more likely to report sore throat (OR: 3.4; 95% CI: 1.04 to 11.18). CONCLUSIONS: Children and adults had similar secondary infection rates, but children generally had less frequent and severe symptoms. In two states early in the pandemic, we observed possible transmission from children in approximately one-fifth of households with potential to observe such transmission patterns.